IBADAN, NIGERIA — Tensions are reaching a boiling point across Oyo State as residents and regional socio-political groups openly allege that the state's deteriorating security situation is heavily tied to federal-level political friction.
The growing public outcry follows a wave of security breaches across the state, including the recent high-profile mass abduction of 32 students and seven teachers in the Oriire Local Government Area. Frustrated citizens and grassroots coordinators are now whispering—and in some cases, openly shouting—that the spike in violence is a coordinated attempt by the presidency's power corridors to destabilize the state following Governor Seyi Makinde’s bold political declarations ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The 2027 Presidential Factor
Governor Makinde, a leading figure within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has increasingly positioned himself as a fierce defender of multi-party democracy. His recent high-profile declarations—including his explicit refusal to support the ruling party’s reelection agenda in 2027 and his public warnings against moving Nigeria toward a one-party state—have firmly placed him in the crosshairs of federal political strategists.
In Ibadan, Ogbomoso, and parts of the Oke-Ogun axis, citizens are pointing accusing fingers at Abuja. The popular narrative on the streets claims that the deliberate withholding, slow deployment, or strategic distraction of federal security resources is intended to "subdue" the governor and make Oyo State appear ungovernable.
"We are not blind to the timing," stated Comrade Adeleke Marinho, a regional coordinator for the Oyo Peace and Development Initiative. "For years, Oyo has been relatively stable compared to its neighbors. But the moment Governor Makinde began making public moves regarding the 2027 presidency and challenging the status quo, armed bandits suddenly gained ground in places like Oriire. The federal government controls the police and military, yet we are seeing a strange sluggishness in proactive responses. It feels political."
"Fixated on 2027 While the State Bleeds"
The citizen backlash comes amid rising nationwide criticism from elder statesmen and security experts who accuse the political elite of prioritizing 2027 alignment over active governance. Critics argue that while the nation’s security architecture is stretched thin, political machinery is being weaponized or neglected to serve future electoral goals.
To counter the perceived federal lapse, Governor Makinde has repeatedly emphasized that Oyo State will heavily rely on and expand its local security component, the Western Nigeria Security Network (Amotekun). During a recent security briefing, the governor maintained that the state "cannot do away with Amotekun," calling it the primary shield protecting local communities from external aggression.
Government and Civil Groups Demand Accountability
While federal security spokespersons have consistently denied claims of political bias in their operations, asserting that tactical movements are dictated solely by intelligence on the ground, the explanation has done little to calm the nerves of Oyo residents.
With local populations facing the direct brunt of school kidnappings and highway ambushes, pressure is mounting on both the Oyo State Government and the federal security commands to separate national defense from partisan politics. Analysts warn that if the security crisis is allowed to linger under the shadow of the 2027 presidential race, the humanitarian toll on the state's citizens will only worsen.
